The appreciation of the renminbi phobia professional perspective

The recent article about RMB appreciation "of the disorder in talking about online after hang out, cause extraordinary attention and hot debate. Have co-sponsors, has opponents, more have not GuWenMing standard rude to lambaste person! "Dominant" consciousness and decision-making "behavior appearance" strikingly coincident: who carry appreciation heel who nasty, even give you buckle on "traitor" big hat. In all kinds of make the bum about, you feel that the appreciation of the renminbi "phobia" how deep the influence of how broad! However carefully opinion, appreciation of phobia of "official" consensus ", based on the most professional, intuitive, and the experts it true and false and misleading. In fact, the article mainly based on the newly industrialized economies earlier experience, belongs to a kind of histories in perception of reality, also can't address which Chinese exchange rate policy.polarized sunglasses To do such a thing, have to do other "homework", at least have the other two pieces of knowledge, theory and the practical observation, respectively. I have always thought, a thing to be accurately judge, especially a policy, the disadvantages have no history knowledge is no good, but light has a history of knowledge or not enough, it will take at least another two aspects of knowledge: a is theory, no you can't see the phenomenon of the theory behind contact, make some changes to the influence of variable amplitude; The other is a real observation. The reality of the person observing ability is not enough, easy to fool the illusion, make miscalculation. If above just said some history-the history of others words, here need to do is theoretical analysis-a simple theoretical analysis. Analysis of the point of view many, here to talk about three viewpoint: the first is drawing the stronger currency price effect. Undeniable, RMB revaluation does possess high export prices pushed the effect. So there is a very popular opinion, it is said it would raise the appreciation of the renminbi China export commodity prices, which causes the export contraction, to a domestic industry and enterprise to bring the disastrous impact. But the problem is that this effect what size is it? Its currency to appreciate what will drive up prices exports? Thus lead to export market shrinking rate have how old? If the, the yuan to rise by 10%, means China export prices will rise 10%? In fact it is not, in fact, this effect is based on the amount of diminishing the release. Here an important significance lies in that exchange rate is a "double-edged sword", its currency to appreciate both the price of export products raise effect, also have the effect of import goods prices down. If one country export products to the imported into existence depends on high, the effects are much smaller. At present China is specific manufacturing in the international division of labor pattern is concerned, China's exports of manufactured goods in fact is also a lot of imported inputs for the premise out of manufacture it in processing trade especially prominent. International authoritative organization earlier estimates that the 2010 China exports of manufactured goods every $1, at least 66 cents to import the direct input products. What does this mean? This means that the appreciation of the renminbi's export prices are far lower than the actual lifting effect of appreciation itself. Even under the most conservative caliber, according to a 10% of its currency to appreciate, for export price uplift of the lagging effect, when would be no higher than 3.5%. In fact, this is not the imported energy and the service and so on indirect investment are included, if the import oil, coal and other a energy "indirect investment" count in, then raise the price of export products exchange rate appreciation smaller effect. Is this viewpoint to see, that a revaluation would greatly raise the prices of manufactured goods that China's export of most is not convincing. Even if according to 65% of the "dominant import" of the export ratio of investment, according to its currency to appreciate the actual export prices rise effect is very low. The second is the number of the value of the trade effects. This problem some slightly complex. Theoretically speaking, to judge the export of its currency to appreciate the quantity of a commodity effect, have to make clear the export goods the price elasticity of demand. The so-called the price elasticity of demand, is a commodity demand for the commodity prices go up drop reactive. As to the Chinese export commodities, which is the foreign buyer needs for Chinese goods prices change the sensitive degree of response. Specific to what we analysis problem, that is the way the questions: if an exchange rate appreciation to block Chinese exports up price 10%, does it mean that China exports fell 10% will be? This is about to see demand elasticity. Based on many years many Chinese export commodity price and quantity of the relationship between observation and analysis, it can be argued that, at present China export commodities in the developed countries of the market demand elasticity is very small, it is less than 1, or even close to zero. This is the most clear evidence, many commodity exports than by the growth of price, price cut has been difficult to lead to market synchronous expansion. In turn can think, have limit raise the price of export products, will not also could not result in synchronous reduce exports. With close to professional words for, if China's export product international market demand elasticity of less than 1, that means exchange rate appreciation causes 10% of price rises, can have a number of contraction effect never more than 10%. Will China export commodity in developed countries in recent years of demand elasticity to judge, how many cases don't even higher than 5%. The third is the alternative (or competitive) supply effect. Believe do export business friends are worried, RMB exchange rate appreciation and prices will lose order, order will give those with China at the same levels of development of other countries the enterprise take. Objective to analysis, the worry is not without foundation, exchange rate appreciation export prices rise would indeed be to competitors to opportunity, a chance to give take orders. But in the near future will not be a lot of, can't even be all.Here one basic reason lies in the manufacturing industry has been formed and scale of the cluster energy economic advantages. As is known to all, after years of continued low cost expansion, China has become the world's largest production ZhongDiDuan many manufactured goods center, formed the huge centralization economic advantage, enjoy economy of scale advantage. To China in ZhongDiDuan manufacture many product "price", to judge the short term is not a country can instead. Although the, Cambodia, old and asean countries has some potential, but its manufactured goods "price" is still difficult to similar industry and enterprise and China rival,baseball hats more cannot be in short-term inside catch up with China's many areas have form of the cluster scale and enjoy the same scale economy. Step back and speaking, even because of exchange rate appreciation and lead exports prices of these national enterprise name, in the short term to provide many areas with China exports "ratio of" number and rival the manufactured goods will not be easy. Because enterprise and the industrial spatial reset (relocation) is not easy, and not depend on the price a factor. In fact in many low-end manufactured goods aspects-for example, footwear, even if China's "sling out" percentage of the order, also enough such small country of enterprise contributing for a while! Made in China at the back of the good quality and low price, is gathering economy. This I will later to say. Objective to see, in recent years, many Chinese exports manufacturing cost on the rise but the price is not rise up, and profit, more does more thin, behind is the main reason of the commercial the deterioration of the environment, and the exchange rate appreciation is the result of. Business environment and the most disorderly to enterprise most "damage", when the first region and the area between enterprises and the enterprises, between the chaos of the competition. Many of the rise in the cost of exports and export prices can't ascending simultaneously reason, is the enterprise to kill each other, and in the back of the slaughter, is the enterprise to important input elements of different cost. It is easy to see the most of the input key cost is financing costs. Those who were able to follow the "parity" rates to get financing of enterprise, in the export competition often take the lead in the bottom, and those trapped in "financing" and even "usury" enterprise up the corner. The latter seems to have only one hope: wish countries continue to give relatively substantially "export tax rebates", hope the RMB exchange rate rise slowly, best depreciation! But think about it, how long can go on like this? More don't welfare loss! In fact, one-time exchange rate appreciation price effect, is the national enterprise "joint cartel" behavior: China export goods prices rose slightly all, import prices. This can not only from the international trade of cutting more welfare, and still can have effect of the survival of the fittest, forcing the waste of resources, what produce income actually more than PM2.5 national damage enterprise transition early! (to be continued)

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