October 11,, the market rumours that the people's bank of China will temporarily increase workers, farmers, and building, the four big line and investment promotion, the people's livelihood legal deposit reserve rate 0.5% two months, and on October 15 payment. The author estimate that this will be frozen bank within the system around 200 billion funds. The policies in the main reason may is September the gap is growing rapidly, open foreign exchange market pressure due cage is larger, the CPI will then years in high under the background of the September credit growth more than target be caused by,MLB hats and in different institutions for the difference between the deposit reserve rate is the purpose of the big commercial Banks, such as DaiCunBi because capital adequacy regulatory index were in small and medium-sized commercial Banks, so the new money to small and medium-sized commercial bank loans above, the difference, the deposit reserve rate also reflects the central bank "keep pressure" structured credit policy characteristics. Long-term bonds and low credit rating will yield by more influence, but this is in fact the bond market opportunity for next year out enough space. Through the first few monetary policy cycle observation can be found, the central bank monetary market interest rate adjustment mode in the CPI annulus comparing trend looked up and began to push the high interest rate currency market, with the increase of CPI year-on-year rate of increase gradually money market interest rates rise, when compared to the CPI continued and significantly reduced, they will gradually reduce money market rates. Due to the September CPI year-on-year rate of increase might rise to 3.6% to 3.7% of the year highs, the central bank to continue tightening financing area often taken for granted. However, because demand for money after decreased significantly, the central bank monetary market interest rates to maintain high levels of difficulty is large. And, because the yuan appreciation in September speed, the international market risk preference level picks up, hot money inflows and settlement of exchange preferences may promote increased foreign exchange gain the gap, gap monthly growth by foreign exchange has been in June 100 billion about the recovered to the bottom in August of 2400 or so, estimates that in September 300 billion to 350 billion may be up to the high level, this increases the central bank open market hedge of pressure. Not only that, although will expire in October of the open market tool only 572 billion, is a general level, but because central Banks in September through the open market on the currency of 330 billion, so the bank open market cage in October pressure great, if the next two months for the weakening of the dollar, and the RMB appreciation high continue to bring more capital settlement, then the central Banks will face lasting larger pressure of hedge, therefore, improve the deposit reserve rate are co-ordinated with the currency to one of the measures. Among the nine months credit super 600 billion rumours, if true, then three quarter new credit will be RMB, above 1.7 trillion, which will be a modest targets set by the central bank more than before, the central bank also have power to credit growth slightly pressure on, due to large commercial Banks in DaiCunBi or whatever capital adequacy ratio and regulatory index is superior to small and medium-sized commercial Banks, so, the big commercial Banks have larger space can lending, marginal lending intend to stronger, in January 2010 to August, large commercial bank every increase 1 yuan capital,MLB Jerseys there will be 0.58 yuan is used for lending, and small and medium-sized commercial Banks are only 0.49 yuan. So, for more effective control credit growth, should be in loanable fund of large commercial bank more restrictions, and mainly for the difference between the big commercial bank deposit reserve rate of ascension is reasonable policy choice. In addition, because of the small and medium-sized commercial Banks credit customers to small and medium-sized enterprise primarily, therefore, to small and medium-sized commercial Banks and large commercial bank differentiate between the central bank still reflected by the "have keep pressure" credit policy orientation. From the central bank would not notice and only temporarily increase two months deposit reserve rate can see, the central bank does not reflect overall firm to tighten monetary policy intentions. In fact, the current international financial market and domestic inflation trends have a very strong uncertainty, and future macro policy advocate fundamental key has not yet been established, therefore, for many times are hard to show the liquidity squeeze measures, and in December, it is CPI year-on-year rate of increase may begin to decrease the early stages, perhaps the central bank will step see one step, this means that the price of tools has obvious effect of the control signal to come. At no HuiTouJian, perhaps the central Banks to do nowadays in chaos at people. We can now see the support economic resilience of the factors most is the nature and the short term rally, and global demand after the injection of doping back step has become a medium-term trends. This means that China's bond trading users can keep cash first in the first half of next year to unfold the grand plan, and investment and can temporarily happy eating it spreads.
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