China's economy is facing the risks and challenges

The article source: Beijing normal university newspaper the third edition update time: the 2010-06-03 bo by: I'm preparing for the speech with the topic this afternoon, he found an old posts. Feel at that time to speak to, now just can be used for, special issue here in full blog. Reporter: according to the media reported that in 2009 the place of GDP compared to the national accounting data, in the economy rebounded stabilising the key period, statistical data not only affects thousands of families, and the government is an important basis for decision-making. This kind of phenomenon behind, actually reflects what problem? How to solve these problems? CaoJianHai: in my opinion, gross domestic product performance in China for "have dug a pit economy", not social net increase of wealth. GDP accounting aspects, China's current GDP accounting system some defects, makes this should be a good economic development indicators GDP lose their meaning. Second, the current GDP accounting deduct seriously insufficient.new era hats wholesale In 1993 the United Nations economic and social affairs in the revision of the national economic accounting system "in put forward" green GDP "concept. Refers to deduct from GDP natural resources consumption reduced value and environmental pollution loss value the rest of the gross domestic product, called the sustainable development gross domestic product. Nowadays, green GDP accounting advance with difficulties. With production, high pollution so GDP growth is the goose that lays the golden eggs. Due to insufficient deductions, especially the rising prices of related data not transparent, cause money into type GDP than greatly raised, this also is not reasonable. China's consumer index of accounting also and the United States had the CPI very big disparity. The United States consumer index weight housing accounted for forty percent, while in China included in the consumer index in the proportion is very low. Today, China's consumer index remains high, if CPI remained high, namely the inflationary pressures continue to increase, will may break the existing pattern of interests, and will seriously violated the interests of the overwhelming majority of the people. So, the government policy will be a series of the livelihood of the people may be weakened or "blown away" badly. Reporter: prime minister wen jiabao's government work report in this year proposed in to accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic development, adjust and optimize economic structure, and stressed the transformation of the mode of economic development is urgently needed. How do you think about, adjust and optimize economic structure? CaoJianHai: nowadays, China's economic structure indeed face a lot of problems. Macro economic structure, the specific performance in government investment leading of economic growth, consumption rate drop, investment and exports become drive economic growth the basic power. Consumer demand is weak, the fixed assets investment is high growth, not brake car, this is not normal. Our savings mechanism for fixed assets investment provides constant flow of capital source: bank monetary and financial means to create (taxes, spending, debt issuing), can expand money supply. This determines the investment can be of great expansion elasticity, investment expansion in the increase output, revenue at the same time, they will surely increase savings. Here is the passive savings, with investment is "natural" fill together. And expand the investment growth there are long-term economic operation risk. Profits pushing of real estate investment growth, is much more increased economic growth structure reasonable degree. China and export dependence, this is excessive investment and matching and the formation of the export of high dependence. The import and export of goods in 2009 whole year the total $2.2072 trillion, down 13.9% from the previous year. Among them, the cargo export $1.2017 trillion, down 16.0%; The goods imported us $1.0056 trillion, down 11.2%. Import and export (exports minus imports) difference between $196.1 billion and $102 billion more than the previous year to reduce. Because of the financial crisis in 2009, the export amount, to economic growth caused very big effect. Therefore, economic growth is too dependent on exports is very dangerous. The industrial structure of the imbalance. In 2009, the real estate industry about profit of 2.72 trillion, accounting for 8.12% of GDP that year. When compared to the other industry can be called on the monolith. But also highlight reflects the irrational industrial structure phenomenon. The regional structure of the decision by privilege differences. The pearl river delta, the west coast of the strait, jiangsu coastal area, tianshui, liaoning, hengqin and the tumen river, the Yellow River delta, central and poyang lake, hainan 11 regional revitalization plan come on stage, which has regional plate wheel move, and also become domestic asset market hot spots. In my opinion, the regional structure of the decision by privilege difference is not normal. China still exist entity economy and virtual economic relations is not clear. China's stock market bubble hard, a real estate bubble and huge anomalies. Personal income distribution imbalance. The government investment expansion increased income distribution differentiation: land expropriation of the plunder mechanism, project contracting corruption in the; The government of the project management company tendency; The enterprise investment capital gains enlargement tendency: GDP caused the government complex in enterprise investment range of allowance; And low wages influence economic transformation of labor, if not improve labor low wages as soon as possible, has received the good education of the labor force will long-term serious shortages, China will never lose the economic transformation of the historic opportunity. Reporter: do you think that the Chinese economy is facing the main risk? What are those? CaoJianHai: asset bubble burst and bank large-scale bad credit is China's economy is facing one of the main risks. China's vocal economic stimulus plan to bring asset bubble is intensifying, and the local government debt crisis of crossing. As far as I know, 10 provinces and cities ZhaiWuLv loans more than 100%. In this respect some local government tough boycott supervision,wholesale nfl jerseys should increase the local government financial information public strength. Excess capacity and credit risk is also one of China's economic risks. China has the world's most serious excess capacity problems, the government is aware of these problems, and on the related measures, but still need to form the governance mechanism.China's economic growth of endogenous power seriously insufficient. From the countries all over the world economic development and industrialization process look, consumption structure and industrial structure of promoted step by step, cause country investment rate emerge from low to high, and from high to low and tended to be relatively stable changes process, the proportion of overall between between 20% and 30%. For example, in 2004 the world low-income countries for 26.6% rate of investment, and middle income countries is 26%, and the high income countries for about 20%, China is 43.9%, this is worth everybody of reflection. Science and technology innovation ability severity shortage, speculative atmosphere to the innovation ability fatal influence there. China's industrial upgrading of difficulties, the reason is that: one is the talent of high technical ability serious short; 2 it is structural barriers. This is all need to the whole society to overcome. Reporter: in the financial crisis age, you think that China's economic development way out? CaoJianHai: to through the reform of the political system limit the government at all levels of power, limit the government administrative spending, punish officials corruption, adjusting income distribution, that's very important. Milking the dry foam, develop the entity industry, especially for domestic residents' consumption industries and new strategic industry, through the industry development promotes obtain employment, increasing the income, expanding consumer demand, form a virtuous circle of people's livelihood meaning economy. We need to vigorously push forward equal public services, financial expenditure is mainly used in the fields to the people's livelihood. To encourage the significance of self-help and the people's livelihood have mutual economic, put an end to a market economy in the field into power.

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