Don't put the yuan depreciation think so well

There are signs that remit to restart the dollar since all the way "small run" unilateral revaluation of the phenomenon seems to have to end. Subtle RMB trends, whether that appreciation inflection point has now? In the industry of hot debate the future trend of the different sects of view, is the most explosive is that, to allow the depreciation of the time. The state information center chief economic normal sword ping said yesterday, funds are left China to show signs of,buy sunglasses now may be China to allow the weak. The central bank data shows, September net state foreign exchange reserves by $60.8 billion, and the largest monthly performance drop since records began. Recent foreign exchange reserves continue to fall, there are proof of the yuan depreciation shall cause the capital outflow. In the expert opinion, when descending in the global economy expand the exchange rate fluctuations interval, should let the yuan depreciation. This advantage, one was to make the export manufacturing enterprise recover machine, reduce the cost of transformation; The other was to lay the foundation of the RMB exchange rate marketization, and eventually for major global currency transition; Three is to rise in economic performance when leaving a currency appreciation space, in the smooth transition economy after, through the exchange rate will be inefficient, down the enterprise resource factors out in the market. However, these laws observers said Labour, even some people laughed at by the. The United States and the international monetary fund is urging China to revalue the yuan. Including Goldman sachs and citigroup, the big Banks are suggest investors bet the yuan rise. China has been keep the RMB exchange rate is located in a strict interval, the yuan is expected to rise about 5% a year. In the high inflation, the government have reason to keep the RMB strong, will import price controls in a certain level. In fact, the Chinese government has been reluctant to succumb to the global pressure, allows the renminbi to appreciate, because since the market that the yuan in the foreseeable future will rise even gradual appreciation), once the rise, will stimulate speculative capital inflows. Over the past year, the central bank will keep in the appreciation of RMB gradually orbit, and in the past month stop on the market the official exchange rate drop, although the face downward pressure. Since June 2010 China no longer let the yuan peg to the dollar since then, the yuan has accumulated to rise by 7.7% this year, a 3.9% rise. It is estimated that 10 years, China each year from the capital inflows, about 20% to 40% is bet the appreciation of the renminbi (or is steady appreciation, or is through a temperate way) of "hot money". These hot money inflow, increase the let further renminbi appreciation pressure, and caused a few China to the already struggling negative results. Due to know China faces from the United States and the international monetary fund pressure, and worry about the rising domestic inflation, some foreign investors think that the Chinese government would be to let the yuan rise steadily. However, due to the international economic weakness, China's exports have been influenced by the impact. From mid-september until now, against the dollar exchange rate is almost not rise. Therefore, hot money run away, because the value of the yuan rise the space is not large, and the American asset price cheap, water flows downwards, well, this out of the block can't keep it here. September this year, blackstone group with 1.46 billion yuan RMB will Shanghai a shopping center sold 95% of the equity. 2008 black stone purchased this property prices for 1 billion yuan RMB,NFL Jerseys hold the property of in three years time, blackstone group will improve the ChuZuLv to more than 90%. In such a good trend under, blackstone did not earn piles'll pull the plug, also seems to be further proved the trend. In this case, some experts talk about "the yuan should be devaluation", let you have the feeling of first: the yuan should eventually decline, and the appreciation; And so for, the Suggestions RMB choose a more flexible exchange rate. In fact, we don't put the yuan depreciation think so well. The benefits of yuan depreciation is common to promote exports, but experts thought no, yuan if depreciation, not only foreign capital, is the domestic capital will escape from China, can not influence on the economy? Moreover, the depreciation of RMB, also means input type inflation, the yuan depreciation will aggravate the current inflation, making Chinese exports of goods to foreign countries to be cheaper. And imported oil, iron ore, wood, grain and other resource materials are American dollars of settlement, conversion into RMB will be more expensive. The material, the price will drive the industry chain, will aggravate current inflation. In addition to this October CPI growth reached 5.5% outside, rather a long time CPI growth reached 6%, the public looking at the rising CPI data, just think prices more and more expensive, money more and worthless, few people will clear awake to feel the yuan is fallen. At the same time, in the face of increased continuously CPI, even to recognize the yuan in domestic depreciating people now won't think of, not far from the future of the time the RMB exchange rate may have a big decline of that day of, the estimate to devalue its currency to let the public was a little willies feeling.

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By QingChang freedom square