On September 28, the famous economist structural came to sun yat-sen university, with "economists in the eyes of public opinion and the news spread phenomenon" is making a speech about. He thought, now the us and European economic crisis is "a crisis of the two stage". These countries have excessive before the spending on welfare, the results of a private bubble break, tax also didn't, the economy also negative growth, public debt is serious. From now on, another 35 years, western economic downturn will in the state. In China, structural thought the situation more optimistic. He said, "China is now some problem with inflation, a real estate bubble. But I don't think that appear economic stagnation. In 2008, in 2009, in order to cope with the crisis, our country executes a large number of government stimulus. If we don't do something wrong, China should have 30 years of growth overheating growth has in the past.buy sunglasses But China's rapid economic growth to keep 60 years, is reasonable thing." The structural these claims, give a person with take it for granted that feeling. As a community of domestic economic optimists, structural economic growth in China is but the reason, 2008 by Wall Street credit crisis caused by the global financial crisis spread, but China's capital markets and securities market basically has not open up to the outside world, from capital ways, by the financial crisis affect China less. China is still in the early industrialization and urbanization, in the process of industrialization, investment will continue to promote China's economic development, and so on. In fact, more than 10 years, gross domestic product (GDP) of the annual average growth of around 10%, largely satisfied in China to manufacturing devotes a lot of resources and cheap financing, in this process produced beyond China's family and enterprise consumption ability of the products, the remaining products export to overseas, of which a large part of the western countries such as America's consumer absorption. However, all that has now changed. In Europe and the United States relies mainly on the economic model of debt for consumption after bursting, residents purchasing power, reduce the demand for Chinese goods. A significant change is, in the 2011 years, China's economy has entered the "slow growth implicit stage". Value added of industry slowdown, industrial inventory up, and developed economies face downside risk, leading to a Chinese macroeconomic regulation and control policy is "overshoot" concerns. At the same time, the value added of industry seems to also appeared a slowdown. In June this year, the state department by the Chinese academy of social sciences and work letter jointly issued the report said that in the first half of 2011 value added of industry is expected to grow by 13.5%, lower than the same period last year's 17.6% growth, also less than 1 to 14.2% in April. Even more important, China's rapid growth has far beyond the limits of their own resources. At present, the domestic oil, iron ore, wood, potash, soybeans and other commodities external dependence at 50% to 70%. However, this factor there is almost no were included in China's economic growth forecasts. According to British petroleum (BP) of the world energy statistics yearbook show that in 2010, China more than the United States as the world's largest consumer of energy. China accounted for 20.3% of global energy consumption, more than the United States accounted for 19% of the world's level. And now the global energy consumption rate reached the highest level since 1973. In addition to energy outside, still some problems worth attention. China's "iron + oil" industrialization, and "reinforced + cement + car" urbanization, not only promoted the Chinese steel industry capacity expansion, and at the same time makes China's GDP expansion to the limit. For nearly 10 years, China's steel output has increased by more than four times. Since 2000 nearly a decade, China's steel and iron industry suddenly rush to accelerate. In 2005 China's steel output shot up to 355 million tons, in 2010, to 650 million mt. Because of China's economic development is not balanced, domestic demand insufficiency, high investment, foreign demand recovery slow growth mechanism is difficult to a change, as the government credit squeeze, can go to the country's economic bubble similar after ten years of stagflation. From 1991 to the early 2000 s, in the last 10 years,Discount sunglasses because of the capital market and the bursting of the housing bubble, Japan's economy slowing abruptly, almost long-term economic stagnation, be economists called "the lost decade". In the 1990 s, people have put a similar reason, demonstrate, "Asian tigers" can continue to expand. But the results proved that they but is based on excessive investment on the basis of a mirage. Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are only keep the high 30 years--China came to this pass. Japan in the preliminary stage of industrialization ended, growth rate dropped by half, in the next 25 years economic the average annual growth of 4.6%, then slow further. In fact, China's future economic growth will appear systematic slow down, it also means that from 1980 to and economic growth of China miracle, may end there. From the second half of 2011 began, China serious inflation will cause the government more severe macroeconomic control, lead to economic slowdown. In addition, rely on cheap labor supply of the formation of the unbalanced economic development, will receive systematic thoroughly liquidation. The settlement has two signs, a place of financing platform is clear; 2 it is the bursting of the housing bubble. In this sense, the structural "China with 30 years of growth" point of view is untenable. In fact, any national economic growth has a degree, when they reach a certain after the rush hour, it down will be inevitable. In the next 10 years, China's economic growth may be from the past 20 years a dizzy height, reduced to 5% to 7%, or even lower levels. This is bad is also good. Especially in today's various resources shortage in the backdrop, China needs to strengthen the confidence of the rapid economic growth, but also need to the confident awake and reflection.
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